It seems like even before the first weekend is over, all the box office analysts have already declared the success or failure of the movie. I know personally, I don’t see a movie until the end of the run, so I don’t have to deal with huge crowds and lines and bad seats, it’s safe to say that nearly everyone I know follows suit. Doesn’t the entire run – including theater receipts, pay per view, home media sales, etc. – have to be considered for that hit or flop call is made? If not, why?
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We don’t know for sure. Lots of times movies become cult classics long after their release. “It’s a Wonderful Life” didnt become popular until it already entered the public domain.
However for most movies, you can gauge interest really early. Let’s say that though historical data you know that for 99% of movies that have first day sales of x and second day sales of y they never return the right level of profit that you would need to declare it a success. So you can safely say it was a flop.
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