It seems like even before the first weekend is over, all the box office analysts have already declared the success or failure of the movie. I know personally, I don’t see a movie until the end of the run, so I don’t have to deal with huge crowds and lines and bad seats, it’s safe to say that nearly everyone I know follows suit. Doesn’t the entire run – including theater receipts, pay per view, home media sales, etc. – have to be considered for that hit or flop call is made? If not, why?
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For the most part, movies make less and less money in the 2nd weekend, 3rd weekend and so on. There are a few exceptions but most of the time it follows that pattern.
So if a movie makes $100M on it’s opening weekend and $45M the following weekend, that’s generally enough data to extrapolate roughly how much it’ll make in its whole run.
Occasionally a movie like Avatar comes by and pretty much keeps consistent weekly earnings for a couple of months but that is super rare.
Calling something a flop after it’s first weekend is acceptable, as you can do a rough estimate of its total earnings using average week to week drop off calculations.
After it’s 2nd weekend though, you’ve got enough data for a pretty accurate prediction.
You and your friends waiting a month to see a movie isn’t really a good indication of when the general public goes to see movies, look up some stats but movies make the majority of their earnings in the first 2 weeks.
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