It seems like even before the first weekend is over, all the box office analysts have already declared the success or failure of the movie. I know personally, I don’t see a movie until the end of the run, so I don’t have to deal with huge crowds and lines and bad seats, it’s safe to say that nearly everyone I know follows suit. Doesn’t the entire run – including theater receipts, pay per view, home media sales, etc. – have to be considered for that hit or flop call is made? If not, why?
In: 1396
Responding to this part: ” I’m still not sure what value they see in declaring the results so early, but I’ll accept that there must be some logic behind it.”
In short: being able to be the first to “break the news” just like any other news organizations. This is why elections are often called this way or that way well before the official count. It’s to gain “credibility” points for the said news organization (or in this case box office analyst site) and being able to say “you hear it here first.”
Of course their analysis might be wrong and they sometimes are, and at the end only the real income matters (not the analysts’ projected income). That doesn’t stop them from declaring it early though. It just causes them to say “whoops our bad, now click here for 5 reasons why our analysis wasn’t right”
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