It seems like even before the first weekend is over, all the box office analysts have already declared the success or failure of the movie. I know personally, I don’t see a movie until the end of the run, so I don’t have to deal with huge crowds and lines and bad seats, it’s safe to say that nearly everyone I know follows suit. Doesn’t the entire run – including theater receipts, pay per view, home media sales, etc. – have to be considered for that hit or flop call is made? If not, why?
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Movie ticket sales follow very predictable trends.
They’re typically most popular on the opening weekend, and popularity quickly falls off over a period of days to weeks.
The vast majority of the money is made in the first week or two, for the vast majority of films.
This makes it easy to get fairly accurate predictions of what a film will gross in total, based on just the first week or two of sales.
And this prediction is what is used to determine if a film is a flop or not, while it’s still showing in theatres.
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