It seems like even before the first weekend is over, all the box office analysts have already declared the success or failure of the movie. I know personally, I don’t see a movie until the end of the run, so I don’t have to deal with huge crowds and lines and bad seats, it’s safe to say that nearly everyone I know follows suit. Doesn’t the entire run – including theater receipts, pay per view, home media sales, etc. – have to be considered for that hit or flop call is made? If not, why?
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Statistics and historical precedent.
Something like 95% of movies will make between 2-3x their opening weekend. (Assuming wide release)
So take opening weekend, multiple by 3 and you have a good idea where it might end up in best case.
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