It seems like even before the first weekend is over, all the box office analysts have already declared the success or failure of the movie. I know personally, I don’t see a movie until the end of the run, so I don’t have to deal with huge crowds and lines and bad seats, it’s safe to say that nearly everyone I know follows suit. Doesn’t the entire run – including theater receipts, pay per view, home media sales, etc. – have to be considered for that hit or flop call is made? If not, why?
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Because the vast majority of movies follow the exact same pattern of earnings over time and a lot of movies these days are very formulaic so you can easily judge them against the performance of the dozen similar films that came before them. I mean if Iron Man 7 has a weak opening and a big drop off, it’s done. The market knows how audiences react to iron man sequels and superhero movies and MCU films so they have built in expectations.
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