It seems like even before the first weekend is over, all the box office analysts have already declared the success or failure of the movie. I know personally, I don’t see a movie until the end of the run, so I don’t have to deal with huge crowds and lines and bad seats, it’s safe to say that nearly everyone I know follows suit. Doesn’t the entire run – including theater receipts, pay per view, home media sales, etc. – have to be considered for that hit or flop call is made? If not, why?
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Blockbuster movies make their budget in the first 2 weeks if they are successful.
Also the decline curve in ticket sales is fairly uniform among most movies, i.e. If a movie makes 100 it’s first week it’ll make 75 the second week 40 the third week etc.
So if a movie doesn’t make enough in it’s first weekend for the standard run of week 1,2,3,etc, to add up to more than the budget you can be 90% sure it’s not gonna make more than the budget.
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