It seems like even before the first weekend is over, all the box office analysts have already declared the success or failure of the movie. I know personally, I don’t see a movie until the end of the run, so I don’t have to deal with huge crowds and lines and bad seats, it’s safe to say that nearly everyone I know follows suit. Doesn’t the entire run – including theater receipts, pay per view, home media sales, etc. – have to be considered for that hit or flop call is made? If not, why?
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>I know personally, I don’t see a movie until the end of the run, so I don’t have to deal with huge crowds and lines and bad seats, it’s safe to say that nearly everyone I know follows suit.
A very common mistake in statistical analysis. Your personal experience is basically meaningless. How many people is “everyone you know”? If it’s isn’t at least thousands, you have far too small a sample size to tell you anything.
The overwhelming majority of people go the first couple of weeks. Movies will often make up to 75% of their gross on the first weekend. The average run of a movie these days is about four weeks. Only huge Mega hits stay in theaters for months.
If a movie doesn’t have a really successful opening it’s basically over. Numbers only go down over time, they ltetty much never go up.
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