why they declare movies successful or flops so early during their runs.

1.56K views

It seems like even before the first weekend is over, all the box office analysts have already declared the success or failure of the movie. I know personally, I don’t see a movie until the end of the run, so I don’t have to deal with huge crowds and lines and bad seats, it’s safe to say that nearly everyone I know follows suit. Doesn’t the entire run – including theater receipts, pay per view, home media sales, etc. – have to be considered for that hit or flop call is made? If not, why?

In: 1396

43 Answers

Anonymous 0 Comments

>I know personally, I don’t see a movie until the end of the run, so I don’t have to deal with huge crowds and lines and bad seats, it’s safe to say that nearly everyone I know follows suit.

A very common mistake in statistical analysis. Your personal experience is basically meaningless. How many people is “everyone you know”? If it’s isn’t at least thousands, you have far too small a sample size to tell you anything.

The overwhelming majority of people go the first couple of weeks. Movies will often make up to 75% of their gross on the first weekend. The average run of a movie these days is about four weeks. Only huge Mega hits stay in theaters for months.

If a movie doesn’t have a really successful opening it’s basically over. Numbers only go down over time, they ltetty much never go up.

You are viewing 1 out of 43 answers, click here to view all answers.