It seems like even before the first weekend is over, all the box office analysts have already declared the success or failure of the movie. I know personally, I don’t see a movie until the end of the run, so I don’t have to deal with huge crowds and lines and bad seats, it’s safe to say that nearly everyone I know follows suit. Doesn’t the entire run – including theater receipts, pay per view, home media sales, etc. – have to be considered for that hit or flop call is made? If not, why?
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It’s an educated guess. There are rare instances where a movie does build momentum and makes more then anticipated. But usually the film makes the most on its opening weekend. So they set a goal for what it needs to make ( and assume it will follow the regular pattern of starting strong and making less as it’s out) and if it doesn’t make that they assume it’s not going to reach any of the needed goals. Like I said though there are rare times to where a movie does do much better after the opening weekend. But it’s not normal. And it’s pretty easy to predict how much it will make after even just one weekend.
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