It seems like even before the first weekend is over, all the box office analysts have already declared the success or failure of the movie. I know personally, I don’t see a movie until the end of the run, so I don’t have to deal with huge crowds and lines and bad seats, it’s safe to say that nearly everyone I know follows suit. Doesn’t the entire run – including theater receipts, pay per view, home media sales, etc. – have to be considered for that hit or flop call is made? If not, why?
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Another factor here is pre-sales, people rarely turn up at the box office to buy tickets so studios can pretty confidently say a day or two pre-opening weekend what numbers they’ll do, based on pretty established algorithms determine volume of pre-sale vs on the day ticket sales.
From then on, it’s a case of adjusting the marketing if the movie gets good reviews following the premiere,, 5* across the board warrant increasing the marketing budget.
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