It seems like even before the first weekend is over, all the box office analysts have already declared the success or failure of the movie. I know personally, I don’t see a movie until the end of the run, so I don’t have to deal with huge crowds and lines and bad seats, it’s safe to say that nearly everyone I know follows suit. Doesn’t the entire run – including theater receipts, pay per view, home media sales, etc. – have to be considered for that hit or flop call is made? If not, why?
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In the case of something like *Flash*, that had a fairly large marketing budget *and* what should be a built-in fandom, it’s fairly academic; you need the diehards and fanboys to show up on opening weekend (better yet opening night) so they can continue the hype via word-of-mouth/social media. When those folks don’t show up (or don’t actually like the movie), then the entire strategy comes apart, and it’s very unlikely to recover without the studio authorizing another expensive marketing campaign.
*Flash* was doomed for a lot of reasons: ZS fanboys that will never be happy with a DC movie, Ezra Miller’s criminal tendencies, the fact that the existing DC cinematic offerings have been extremely inconsistent quality-wise (and seemingly trending downward), and a *super*-cringey marketing campaign that centered around having random celebrities claiming they’d seen it already and that it’s “the best superhero movie of all time”.
I’m actually far more surprised that Shazam 2 flopped as hard as it did; Flash never stood a chance.
We don’t know for sure. Lots of times movies become cult classics long after their release. “It’s a Wonderful Life” didnt become popular until it already entered the public domain.
However for most movies, you can gauge interest really early. Let’s say that though historical data you know that for 99% of movies that have first day sales of x and second day sales of y they never return the right level of profit that you would need to declare it a success. So you can safely say it was a flop.
Something that gets me is, say a movie costs $200M to make, the movie makes $350M, but it’s still considered a fail. I’m like, WHAT!?!?! This means that hey recovered their entire production investment of $200M (which includes what is paid to the stars, producers, writers, director, and the guys cleaning up after the cars crashes and explosions) *and* made $150M more in *profit* and it’s still considered a failure!?!?! Proof that corporate America is straight greedy. smh
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