Why we cannot calculate the future, even when taking every single variable into account
In: Physics
Which variables would those be, and how do you know?
In order to make accurate predictions, we need a model that includes all of the important variables. For something like a prediction regarding what will happen when we mix this amount of calcium chloride with that amount of sodium carbonate under these conditions, the model is pretty simple, easy to reproduce, and even if we don’t truly know all the variables, the ones we don’t know we don’t know don’t seem to be important…
Other issues are far more complex, and time is an important variable. We cannot accurately predict the temperature in my back yard tomorrow morning, nor can we accurately predict whether or not it will be raining at 7 a.m. in my back yard. Presumably that’s because we don’t know enough of the variables, even though we can build a model, make a prediction, test that prediction, and then adjust the model every single day. Add in more than 24 hours, and more variables (presumably many of which we don’t know we don’t know), and predicting the future becomes orders of magnitude more difficult.
Which of course is my issue with anthropomorphic climate change… we can build a model to predict where the moon will be 30 days from now relative to where we are, then test and adjust that model every month, and we seem to be getting pretty good, as we hit the moon with spacecraft. (But how precise is the prediction? Do I need to be able to predict where it will be to the closest foot, or is 5,000 kilometers close enough?). But if I build a model for climate 50 years from now, how am I testing and adjusting my model? Especially if I am concerned about small fluctuations in temperature? If I can’t get my backyard temperature correct tomorrow morning, why do I think I can get the planet correct in 50 years?
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