Why we cannot calculate the future, even when taking every single variable into account
In: Physics
1. We lack the accuracy to measure everything (every atom to perfect precision) – it’s a rule baked into quantum mechanics.
2. Some processes are genuinely random – there’s no internal clock saying whether an unstable atom will decay in any one moment, just a probability.
3. Complex systems (where small parts can make big differences) are very difficult to model more than a few cycles in advance. You’d literally need a computer bigger than the universe to model the universe for any length of time.
4. Because in complex systems small parts can make a big difference, we can’t even make some approximations and then hope the simulation will still be accurate.
5. We also don’t have a perfect model of how the universe works. Current models of physics don’t work in a lot of cases (e.g. Black Holes). We also don’t know a lot of what’s going on in the wider universe (Dark Matter). So we’d need a complete model of physics, which we are nowhere near yet.
Reasons 3-5 mean we definitely can’t do it with current technology. Reasons 1 and 2 are why it is literally impossible, no matter what technology.
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