How do meteorologists forecast weather 10+ days out?


Hell, one website I look at will forecast the weather 30 days out and they’re mostly accurate, even when they say it might rain 18 days from now.

Is it as simple as just plugging data into forecast modeling software and pressing SUBMIT? How does the software know that it’ll be Xº multiple weeks from now?

In: 1

They don’t in my area, they couldn’t predict 3 days of their own diet. Always going to rain till it always goes north.

For the most part they don’t and can’t. After around 10 days they are pretty much just looking at historical records. They may be able to predict a wetter (or dryer) or a hotter or cooler pattern, but these are at best guesses.

Now if we’re talking about Honolulu, my prediction is that it’ll be in the mid-80’s with a chance of rain for the next 12 months. Let me know how accurate my prediction was next year.

Very powerful supercomputers, with a lot of current and historic data fed in.

Even then, they’re not particularly accurate as the real world is far more complex than even the best current atmospheric models.

Short answer: they can’t. Anything beyond a 3-Day Forecast is 70% guesswork. Anything beyond a 5-Day is 100% guesswork. What you see beyond that 5-Day is a prediction based on statistical data.