How is it that when you flip a coin 10 times, the likely hood that it’ll land on heads 10 times in a row is extremely small but the likely hood that it’ll land on heads is 50/50 if it already landed on heads 9 times? I get that it’s a closed system and its roughly 50/50 for every coin flip but my brain is just telling me that it should be a higher chance that it would land on tails instead of heads. How does this work?
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So the chances of flipping on heads three times in a row is fairly small, 12.5% chance, but no matter what the chances of any coin landing on heads is 50%
We instinctively know it’s unlikely for it to land heads 10 times in a row, so when it gets to 9 we think it must not land on heads since that would result in something so unlikely, this is of course a fallacy and it’s always 50%.
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