A couple of centuries of scientific observation of the weather by recording temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, and other things. All this data gathered together allows modern meteorologist to make a reasonably accurate educated guess as to what those conditions will cause.
Obviously its not a perfect prediction because there are so many constantly changing variable that no one can account for them all. That’s why it’s always an x% chance of rain. It’s basically saying x% of the time these conditions caused rain in the past.
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