Was watching a podcast recently where a girl called another girl dumb for choosing all 6 for a lottery ticket saying that after one 6 is chosen, the probability of each subsequent 6 being chosen decreases. I.e you’re better off choosing 10 random numbers than 10 6’s.
The other 2 in the podcast called the girl an idiot because each six is chosen separately. So the probability of arriving at all 6 is the same as any other combinations. This seems to make sense to me. Rolling 10 dice, the probability of one 6 doesn’t magically effect the other result of the other di.
However I seem to vaguely remember being taught something similar to the supposedly idiot girl when I was a kid.
So basically, who’s right and why?
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If the choices are independent, then yes, it doesn’t matter what number you choose each time, they all have an equal chance of coming up.
If the choices are dependent, i.e. there are 5 balls with the same number and after one comes up there are only four left, then yes, you should change the number you choose as that one you picked is now less likely to come up out of the pool of number balls.
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