Why can data models predict the future climate but not the weather?
Why are weather forecasts often wrong but modelling of the future climate highly accurate? I would presume a more complex system over a longer period would be harder to predict.
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Here’s an analogy. Suppose you have one six-sided die and one twenty-sided die. You roll both of them and keep track of the average values of each die.
You can’t predict in advance what numbers you’ll get on one roll in particular. But over many rolls, you can be confident that the average value of the twenty-sided die will be higher than the average value of the six-sided die.
Predicting the weather is like predicting the value of one particular roll. Predicting the climate is like predicting the average of many rolls.
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