Eli5: Why do some countries have high fertility rates and others low? (In 2024)
In: Biology
In poor/low-tech countries, high fertility rates are the norm because child mortality rates are brutal. If you and your spouse hope to even have two children who grow up to replace you, you need 6-ish births because it’s so common for children to die.
Once a country is wealthier and has good enough health care that most children survive, women get to have the number of kids they *want* to have, instead of the number they *need* to have – and worldwide, when they have a choice, most go for the zero-to-three range.
(When people suddenly move from one country to another, they don’t adopt the lower number right away; there’s usually a generation or maybe two where they still do what’s normal and expected where they grew up. But they trend toward the norm of the culture they’re living in.)
Culture. Though it can be further broken out into various causal effects that also interact. Let’s use Japan for example — due to its strict work culture, those who are at fertile ages tend to be overworked and don’t have time to pursue relationships. Simultaneously, with gender role being a part of the tradition, more progressive young women are avoiding men with more conservative values. And other forces play into this — e.g. religion, family values, climate, etc.
I should have started with this, but at the end of the day imo it’s mostly environmental and social factors that influence this
In poor, agrarian societies, more children means more hands to work on the farm which is very useful. They also have very little education and access to contraception. There are exceptions e.g Israel which despite being a rich country has a high birth rate due to some highly conservative Jewish communities. In the middle income and rich nations, women are educated and tend to focus on their career, so they get married later. The increased education and access to contraception reduces their fertility rate. Also, feminism and the sexual revolution have changed people’s mindset about abstinence, marriage, families etc. Another factor to consider is affordability/maternal policies. France has good maternal policies hence a decent birth rate. If young people can’t afford rent e.g in Southern Europe, they won’t be able to move out and start a family.
In broad, terms, the more commonly cited factors:-
1) Urban vs rural population. Urban lifestyle is typically less accommodating of children so large urban population percentage typically leads to lower fertility.
2) Education (especially women). Better education especially higher education typically means delayed marriage due to education and early career pursuit. Among women, higher education can contribute to better birth and fertility control.
3) Better healthcare. People expect to live longer and no longer feel they need to have many children.
4) Social factors and welfare. If there is an expectation that the elderly will need to be cared for by children, then the increased dependency costs might reduce incentive to have children.
5) General cost of living. A very often cited issue for young adults is the high cost of rent/homes, high cost of raising children.
6) Workplace or working culture. Another often cited issue is that young people are finding it harder to start careers. Newly developed or developing economies, industrialize and commercialize quickly. Workers are spending a lot of time at work and increased female workforce participation.
7) Modern lifestyle/attitudes. Highly religious/traditional societies tend to favor more children.
Undeveloped countries have low education, low opportunity for women, low contraceptive use. Abortions are usually illegal in these countries. The people are usually conservative and religions. More children also means more labor to help out on farms, where many people in poor countries work. Meanwhile, in developed countries women often prefer having a career over having a bunch of kids. Also having kids is expensive here, because you have to spend so much money on them.
Chemicals we allow in our food and environment are endocrine disrupters. Many of the plastics your food is wrapped in, products you put on your body, that keurig you use all have them. Companies shell out billions to make sure that sounds like debated science and not a proven fact. Meanwhile American males are being born with progressively smaller penises and less testosterone. Look up dr Shanna Swan.
Many of these comments are nonsense. It’s pretty simple and has been for generations. Sex is free and feels good. We’re not in 1885. It’s not a matter of survival, religion, having extra workers, etc. it’s that birth control costs money but it’s not a diversionary tactic for people to avoid sex.
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