eli5 “You’re more likely to be in an accident in a red car”

Question

I heard this statement and it confused me. The explanation was more red cars have accidents than other cars. But surely that doesn’t translate to “I personally am more likely to have an accident if I drive a red car than a blue car today”? Assuming there’s nothing inherently about red cars that makes them more likely to crash. I’m struggling with the maths theory behind it.

Edit to clarify my question: does the statistic that “red cars have more accidents” translate to the statement that “I, personally, all other things being equal, am more likely to have an accident if I drive a red car than a blue one”?

In: 10

Answer 1

Insurance works on averages – on average there are enough customers paying for insurance and not claiming anything back to cover for the customers who do make claims.

The thing is, this penalises good, safe drivers.

On average teenagers will have more accidents than middle aged people.
On average people that commute daily will have more accidents than those who only drive for personal reasons at the weekend.
On average people who park their cars on a public road will make more claims than those who keep their car in a garage.

So combine all of these, and it seems a bit unfair that the middle aged, weekend driver who keeps their car in a garage will be paying as much as the much riskier teenage, street parked commuter. So the insurance companies adjust their prices so that the average responsible driver pays less for their insurance than the riskier drivers do.

Obviously this can be considered on a very basic level, or taken to a huge depth to tailor insurance premiums. Engineers are safer drivers than salesmen. X area is safer than Y area. People who buy red cars tend to be more dangerous than those who buy grey cars…

So when they say ‘red cars are in more accidents’, what they are talking about are the average characteristics – that the sort of people who like bright, attention grabbing red cars are also the same people who drive more aggressively.
It doesn’t mean that you personally are any more likely to be in an accident – after all not ever driver of a red car is an aggressive one, and aggressive drivers will also be found in other colours of vehicle, but on average the percentage of red cars ending up in accidents is higher than other colours.