how Astronaut landings can be calculated

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How Do NASA and other organisations make sure they are at the right spot to pick them up and that the astronauts don’t land in some war zone or remote hard to reach area?

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https://spotthestation.nasa.gov/tracking_map.cfm

This is the ISS orbital tracker. If you separated from the ISS and burned retrograde (slowed down), your would begin to descend, and land somewhere along that path. How far along depends on how much you slowed down, and can be calculated.

Wait for the earth to rotate under the ISS until the path lines up with where you want to go, then burn retrograde the correct amount at the correct time.

The spacecraft can then use aerodynamic effects to steer inside the atmosphere as it falls back. The extent that it can do this is known as cross range capability. The Space Shuttle had a lot, because it had wings, but even capsules have a little bit

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