How can geologists really know that there is a miniscule chance that the Yellowstone super volcano will erupt in the next few thousand years?

Question

How can geologists really know that there is a miniscule chance that the Yellowstone super volcano will erupt in the next few thousand years?

In: Earth Science

Answer 1

There needs to be enough lava built up to lead to the eruption and lave isn’t building up and is making no sign over the recorded history of Yellowstone of starting the necessary buildup. There are two domes that did build up in a series of eruptions from 170,000 years ago to 70,000 years ago, but they have been quiet since then.

Based on where things were at prior major eruption points, it seems pretty quiet.