how do experts calculate the probabilities of unique events?

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Let’s take the example of a rocket going to the moon. You might have people say that the mission has 80% probability of success, but maybe if X is done the probability might go up to 90%. Think especially about the case where nothing similar has ever been done before.

Is there some actual math or is it just rhetorics?

In: Engineering

3 Answers

Anonymous 0 Comments

Those are basically just figures of speech to express their opinion on how likely something is to happen, they haven’t calculated anything (nor is it possible to in most cases).

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