They don’t *know*, but there are ways to guess and check.
Even a century ago, we had a pretty good idea of what types of rock were found in what areas of the world. And certain types of rock are, for various reasons, associated with particular mineral deposits. For example, if you’re looking for diamonds – which are made very deep in the Earth – you’ll need [a very deep vent](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_pipe#Kimberlite_pipes) that can pull up material from near the mantle. If you’re looking for [ores that hang out with iron](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldschmidt_classification#Siderophile_elements), you probably shouldn’t look in rocks that don’t *have* any iron in them. And so on.
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