How do weather apps/channels predict what the pollen count will be in future days?
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#ELI5
Every Wednesday, Mr. Jacobs walks past your house to go to the library.
Week after week, without fail, you always see him go past your house on Wednesdays.
On sunny days, he wears a hat.
On rainy days, he carries an umbrella.
On colder days, he has on a coat.
It’s early Wednesday morning. It’s warm, but it looks like rain today.
PREDICT FOR ME:
* Will Mr. Jacobs pass your house?
* What will Mr. Jacobs have? A hat, umbrella, or coat?
How do you know?
* You saw things happening, week after week.
* You saw a pattern taking place (sunny = hat).
* You used that pattern to *predict* what would happen in the future.
Weather prediction (rain, snow, wind, temperature, UV, pollen) is the same thing. Over decades of watching the weather, they have noticed patterns taking place.
Example: When it’s 70° on Tuesday, and 72° on Wednesday, *most of the time,* it ends up being 74° on Thursday.
In other words: We’ve noticed *over 100 years* that *usually,* a 74° day occurs after consecutive 70° and 72° days.
So they use that pattern to predict what happens next. The amount of data is MASSIVE. They can notice patterns that take days or weeks to occur.
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