I have no legal experience or knowledge. When the laws are changed, how do lawmakers assess their consequences and effects? Are there special teams that are supposed to take data that measures whether or not a certain policy or law is working?
For example, Oregon just decriminalized drugs. How will we know if it is saving the government money, decreasing BIPOC incarceration, and increasing the resources allocated to addiction recovery centers as proposed? How will we know if drug use is increasing or decreasing as a result?
People always talk about holding legislators accountable. How do you actually do this? What is the time frame for measuring the effects of a policy change?
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It depends. At the federal level, the GAO and the Congressional Budget Office do this sort of audit and analysis. They are professional experts, who have access to data and modelling skills to do the work well. States have similar offices, though not as well staffed or funded.
They compare measurements from before and after the policy change. This is hard, as many other things changed at the same time. They do the best that they can. If the impact is significant, reasonable results can usually be worked out. Much of the time, however, it’s more complicated, the impacts are more nuanced, and “certain” isn’t really a reasonable judgement.
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