– How is the <1% fatality rate reported in some media for COVID-19 calculated?
Looking at the numbers as of now, there have been just over 88,000 cases and 3,001 deaths in the COVID-19 outbreak so far. This gives a fatality rate of around 3.3%. When looking at cases which have been closed (either recovered or died), the rate is closer to 7%. This seems hard to reconcile with the media reports saying the rate is below 1% and at worse maybe 2%?
In: Mathematics
For what is probably a number of reasons, the case fatality rate (# of confirmed dead due to disease / # of confirmed with the disease * 100) in Hubei province is higher than in many other locations — both in China and around the world.
The (# confirmed dead due to disease / # of confirmed recovered from the disease * 100) rate has been dropping for the past month and a half, and is NOT the case fatality rate that people are talking about.
There are likely a number of mild or asymptomatic cases that never go to the hospital and get confirmed, so they never become **cases** and are not included in the case fatality rate. So the true fatality rate is thought to be lower than the 2-4% or so that you get from just dividing the numbers.
All of that said — CFR is something people estimate while the outbreak is going on, and calculate firmly after it is over. So what you see in the media is an estimate.
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