I know it’s true, it’s just something that seems hard to wrap my head around. How is this not a logical paradox?
In: Mathematics
i work in a casino, and we have an obligation to disprove gambler’s fallacy. we have a massive amount of resources *and* a GameSense Advisor on site every day to do this, and regular staff are trained in (at the very least) the basics on how to dispel myths.
there are two types of gamblers. those who *understand* the odds, and those who don’t, and those who don’t, *really cannot*.
it doesn’t matter how hard you try to prove it. it doesn’t matter if you have statistical models and factual proof of payouts being *entirely random*, they will still believe they’re ‘due a win’ or that ‘luck is on my side, you watch’.
for slots, the most common misconception is the ‘jelly beans in a jar’ belief; that there’s 9999 black jellybeans and 1 red one and that every time they pull the handle, the number of black jellybeans goes from 9999 to 9998, and so if they spin long enough, they’ll go from 9999:1 to 1:1, and they’ll win. when in *fact*, it’s *always* 9999:1 and the only thing spinning the reels does is shake that jar full of 10000 jellybeans up.
the belief is pervasive. i’d like to say that all it takes is a few really bad losses for someone to figure it out, but that is almost never the case. the worse their losses, the more convinced they become that ‘the next time’ or ‘this machine’ or ‘this table’ will be the one to help them recoup their losses.
gamblers also never talk about *how much money* they spent to get that big win. *sure,* you might’ve just pulled down a 10k jackpot, but i watched you sit at that dollar spot hitting max bet for *five hours*. and at about 100$ per spin, and at *about* 20 spins per *minute* … sure you’ll have big and small wins leading up to that 10k, but in nearly every case, that ‘big’ jackpot brings a player close to breaking even, and *rarely in the win column.*
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