If you want to be precise there are heaps of study and medical data that can predict outcomes based on stage of illness and contributing factors like weight, age, smoking, drinking etc
That said, most will just “eyeball it” and be relatively accurate based on their experience and the volume of cases they’ve already studied, read about and personally tended to.
There will always be outliers – often some extreme ones, but the curve is pretty easy to measure based on the average sample size a doctor has access to.
Source: work with data for a living (not a doctor – but a software and data science / IoT specialist and it’s no different than predictive maintenance for critical parts in industry – see enough and you can call a range, really wanna dive it, get the database out and do some analysis)
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