Metabolism has a huge effect “Cals out” and is the simplest answer to your question. Metabolism declines with with age and aging events like menopause as well as metabolic-issues or other health issues and thus these things reduce how easy it is for “Cals out” to happen.
Even if you are doing the same amount of exercise (and for the most part you aren’t when you are post menopausal compared to when you are much prior) the majority of the “Cals out” for most humans is not in your physical movement but is in your body’s assorted metabolic processes (including a woman’s whole estrus cycle which is now gone post menopause, so that sink of calories is gone.) People often only think of the “Cals out” in terms of exercise, but some ridiculous amount (I used to know the %age a few decades ago) of “Cals out” is just your body doing chemical reactions to maintain metabolism and other “passive” process that happen automatically, which again, slows drastically with age.
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