In 246,000 years, half a sample will decay.
But if you have 492,000 atoms, there’s a good chance that one of them will go *this* year.
In a gram of uranium there’s ~10^21 atoms, and so even though any individual atom is likely to last for a hundred millennia, there will be a detectable rate of decay over a much shorter period of time.
You count how many decay events your Geiger counter picks up in an hour and extrapolate that out.
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