Population trend.
It’s possible to have a very small but stable population – for example if it’s a species that seems to have evolved to thrive in some very specific environmental conditions unique to its habitat. That would be, in your words, just a “rare” species.
But if the population is in decline, then we can guess that there is some factor which is killing the organisms off or causing them to not reproduce well enough to sustain the population. So, by definition, that species would be “at risk” or “endangered” because if things don’t correct themselves the species could continue to decline all the way to extinction.
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