When drawing straws, are you more likely to get the short straw if you pick first, or after several people have already picked?
In: Mathematics
It depends. If everyone draws straws first and the everyone reveals at the same time, then it doesn’t matter when you pick yours.
If each individual draws their straw and then reveals it before the next person draws, then each later person has increased odds of getting the short straw IF they end up drawing a straw before the short straw has been revealed. However, there is also an increasing chance that the remaining people will not draw any straw at all. (so, actually, it still didn’t matter from a logical perspective, but it would be a lot more nerve wracking for you waiting last to pick as each person not to draw the short straw slowly increased your perception of how likely you were to draw it yourself.)
This is because odds are based on available knowledge. If the knowledge doesn’t change, the odds don’t change. If the knowledge changes, then the odds must change to reflect the new knowledge.
This is something you can demonstrate really neatly in the Monty Hall problem (three doors, two with things you don’t want, one with a thing you do want. If you pick one door without opening it, you have a 1:3 change that your door has the thing you want. next one of the remaining doors is opened to reveal a thing you don’t want- since there is a 2:3 chance that the door you picked had a thing you don’t want, but you’ve been shown new knowledge about a door you didn’t pick, you now know that there is a 2:3 chance that the remaining door actually has the thing you want and a 1:3 change that the door you initially picked has the thing you want, where before both had the same 1:3 chance.)
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