When drawing straws, are you more likely to get the short straw if you pick first, or after several people have already picked?
In: Mathematics
It does not matter. Say there is 5 straws. The first one to pick have a 20% chance of picking the shortest one. Now there is 4 straws so the next person have a 25% chance of picking the shortest one. However that is assuming the first person did not already pick the short straw. And there is an 80% chance that he did not. And 80% of 25% is 20% which is exactly the same chance as the first one had. This is true for everyone involved. The last person have an 80% chance that someone already picked the shortest straw so even if he have a 100% chance of picking the shortest straw if that remains that is only a 20% chance.
You can think of the situation differently. What if instead of straws there was sealed envelopes. The order in which you pick your envelope does not matter as everyone is left with an envelope that might be the special one. The fact that you open the envelope just after you have picked it or after everyone have picked does not change its contents.
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