When drawing straws, are you more likely to get the short straw if you pick first, or after several people have already picked?
In: Mathematics
At the start, before anyone has picked, everyone has an equal chance of getting the short straw.
But as people pick and reveal their straw the probability changes now you know more information. If you’re last and no one has drawn the short straw yet then obviously you have a 100% chance of getting it yourself. All the other possibilities have been ruled out by this point.
On the flip side of this, you only have a 1 in <number of people> chance of getting to your turn with no one else having got it yet. So overall the probability is the same whether you pick first or last.
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