Physicist look at what they see around them, create rules about what they see, and use math to find the consequences of those rules.
In thought experiments they just look for a contradiction. Aristotle’s original principle of all things naturally being in a state of rest contradicted the movement of comets in the sky.
In calculations and computer programs they will often know what will happen a very small moment in the future. It is easy to predict the weather tomorrow but hard to predict the weather next year. They can then keep predicating a small step in the future until they finish quite far from where they started.
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