Why does something like the gambler’s fallacy hold true in an instance like the monte carlo roulette incident?


In case you’re wondering what the monte carlo incident is, it was a game of roulette that landed on black 26 times in a row… the odds of that happening is 1 in 66.6 million

The gamblers fallacy is a fallacy that people who gamble tend to think if something has a long streak it’s going to change.

If the odds of it being 26 blacks in a row is 1 in 66.6 million why would that be a fallacy? Obviously it could always be a 27th black but thats incredibly unlikely and statistically speaking red would be far more likely…

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7 Answers

Anonymous 0 Comments

Imagine you walk up to a roulette table. You haven’t seen any of the previous spins and don’t know what was previously hit. You decide to place a bet on black thinking that your odds are slightly less than 50% (because, numerically, they are). They spin the wheel and you’re waiting to see what the ball lands on when a guy walks up and says, “it’s so weird, it landed on black 26 times before this.” Because he told you that, are you less likely to win this particular spin? No, your odds did not change because this guy told you what happened in the past. Each spin is completely independent of all previous and future spins.

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