Why does something like the gambler’s fallacy hold true in an instance like the monte carlo roulette incident?


In case you’re wondering what the monte carlo incident is, it was a game of roulette that landed on black 26 times in a row… the odds of that happening is 1 in 66.6 million

The gamblers fallacy is a fallacy that people who gamble tend to think if something has a long streak it’s going to change.

If the odds of it being 26 blacks in a row is 1 in 66.6 million why would that be a fallacy? Obviously it could always be a 27th black but thats incredibly unlikely and statistically speaking red would be far more likely…

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7 Answers

Anonymous 0 Comments

Red is no more likely than black for the 27th spin. There’s slightly less than a 50% chance that it lands on Red and a slightly less than 50% chance it lands on black(thanks to the Green zeros)

The odds of getting to that pattern are 1 in 66 million, but the odds on the next spin are always the same

If you do a few billion roulette spins, you’ll likely have at least one string of 30 blacks in a row and another string of 30 reds in a row, simply because you have a large enough sample that suddenly unlikely combinations become near certainty. But just because I know that somewhere in the billions of spins will be 30 blacks in a row, that doesn’t mean I should go all in on the first one to reach 29 in a row.

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