Why is it a dumb idea for me to go to a casino and play roulette ONLY until I double my money or break even?

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So I don’t gamble, and don’t ever indend to make it a habit.

But a friend told me to play roulette, and I would have a ~47% chance of doubling my money and , as long as I had enough money to keep doubling my stake, would have a ~95% break even if I kept going until I won and never played again.

So say I had $200k in the bank and always put my money on red

Spin 1 : $5K

Spin 2: $10K

Spin 3: $20K

Spin 4: $40k

Spin 5: $80K

Spin 6: $160k

In this scenario, I’d have a ~47% chance of winning $5k, and just a 2% chance of losing $160k?

EDIT: Although just working this out, I think I would probably put the 160k into a 4% savings account if I had it, or start off way smaller amounts e.g. $500 to reduce my chane of losing money significantly lol.

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46 Answers

Anonymous 0 Comments

For every spin of the wheel (or any other game), you’re chances of losing are slightly higher than winning. That’s how casinos make money. So it’s possible you’ll lose all your money before you get a chance to even break even.
The luck isn’t winning – you will lose it all eventually the longer you gamble. The luck is winning early. Then you can stop playing. But then you can’t come back the next night either or you’ll be back on the slow trend toward losing it again.

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