Why is it a dumb idea for me to go to a casino and play roulette ONLY until I double my money or break even?

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So I don’t gamble, and don’t ever indend to make it a habit.

But a friend told me to play roulette, and I would have a ~47% chance of doubling my money and , as long as I had enough money to keep doubling my stake, would have a ~95% break even if I kept going until I won and never played again.

So say I had $200k in the bank and always put my money on red

Spin 1 : $5K

Spin 2: $10K

Spin 3: $20K

Spin 4: $40k

Spin 5: $80K

Spin 6: $160k

In this scenario, I’d have a ~47% chance of winning $5k, and just a 2% chance of losing $160k?

EDIT: Although just working this out, I think I would probably put the 160k into a 4% savings account if I had it, or start off way smaller amounts e.g. $500 to reduce my chane of losing money significantly lol.

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46 Answers

Anonymous 0 Comments

Take an example. You’ve got $200k

Spin 1, you put $5k in with a 52.7% chance to lose. You lose. You now have $195k

Spin 2, you put $10k in with a 52.7% chance to lose. You lose. You now have $185k

Spin 3, you put $20k in with a 52.7% chance to lose. You lose. You now have $165k

Spin 4, you put $40k in with a 52.7% chance to lose. You lose. You now have $125k

Spin 5, you put $80k in with a 52.7% chance to lose. You lose. You now have $45k

What now? You’ve not got enough left to double your last bet and cover your loss. So you put the remaining $45k in with a 52.7% chance to lose. You lose. You have no money.

At each spin, you’re doubling the amount you’re risking on the same odds that are still against you. It’s just digging the same hole, but faster.

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