So I don’t gamble, and don’t ever indend to make it a habit.
But a friend told me to play roulette, and I would have a ~47% chance of doubling my money and , as long as I had enough money to keep doubling my stake, would have a ~95% break even if I kept going until I won and never played again.
So say I had $200k in the bank and always put my money on red
Spin 1 : $5K
Spin 2: $10K
Spin 3: $20K
Spin 4: $40k
Spin 5: $80K
Spin 6: $160k
In this scenario, I’d have a ~47% chance of winning $5k, and just a 2% chance of losing $160k?
EDIT: Although just working this out, I think I would probably put the 160k into a 4% savings account if I had it, or start off way smaller amounts e.g. $500 to reduce my chane of losing money significantly lol.
In: 8
Because that’s not fun. And if you’re not gambling to have fun, you’re doing it wrong. The *only* way to look at a night out in the casino is to decide how much money you’d like to spend to have a night of fun in the casino. That’s it. If you want to have $200 worth of fun….then you’ll probably have to find a low min place.
Because that’s not fun. And if you’re not gambling to have fun, you’re doing it wrong. The *only* way to look at a night out in the casino is to decide how much money you’d like to spend to have a night of fun in the casino. That’s it. If you want to have $200 worth of fun….then you’ll probably have to find a low min place.
Let’s assume you can make all those bets. Let’s look at the expected value:
First off: with $200K, you can only make 5 bets: having already bet $155K at that point, you only have $45K.
Over 5 bets, you have a (53%)^(5) chance of losing everything: about a 4% chance of losing $155K – an expected loss of $6.4K. Over the same 5 bets, your ~96% chance of winning $5K is less than that – so, on average, you will lose.
And that’s the problem of the “Martingale System” – it stops working as soon as you run out of money. In theory, if you have an infinite amount of money and time, and no limits to how much you can bet, it works – but in practice, there is a negative expected value and you will run out of money eventually.
Let’s assume you can make all those bets. Let’s look at the expected value:
First off: with $200K, you can only make 5 bets: having already bet $155K at that point, you only have $45K.
Over 5 bets, you have a (53%)^(5) chance of losing everything: about a 4% chance of losing $155K – an expected loss of $6.4K. Over the same 5 bets, your ~96% chance of winning $5K is less than that – so, on average, you will lose.
And that’s the problem of the “Martingale System” – it stops working as soon as you run out of money. In theory, if you have an infinite amount of money and time, and no limits to how much you can bet, it works – but in practice, there is a negative expected value and you will run out of money eventually.
There are some really good answers on this thread, but there’s a really simple way to look at it. You and the casino are playing the same game. If you have a 47% chance of winning, they have a 53% chance. Additionally, they have more money than you do. With better odds and more money in the bank, the house will always win in the long run
There are some really good answers on this thread, but there’s a really simple way to look at it. You and the casino are playing the same game. If you have a 47% chance of winning, they have a 53% chance. Additionally, they have more money than you do. With better odds and more money in the bank, the house will always win in the long run
I tried this on blackjack and did really well until i lost 9 times in a row and lost everything.
I tried this on blackjack and did really well until i lost 9 times in a row and lost everything.
Table limits.
Let’s say the table has a maximum bet of $50k (it’s usually much less than that, but let’s go with that to match your example). This means that if you don’t win in the first four spins, you won’t get a chance on the fifth spin to get your money back. The odds of losing four spin a row are not out of the question, so you can easily drop $75k just like that.
Table limits.
Let’s say the table has a maximum bet of $50k (it’s usually much less than that, but let’s go with that to match your example). This means that if you don’t win in the first four spins, you won’t get a chance on the fifth spin to get your money back. The odds of losing four spin a row are not out of the question, so you can easily drop $75k just like that.
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