So I don’t gamble, and don’t ever indend to make it a habit.
But a friend told me to play roulette, and I would have a ~47% chance of doubling my money and , as long as I had enough money to keep doubling my stake, would have a ~95% break even if I kept going until I won and never played again.
So say I had $200k in the bank and always put my money on red
Spin 1 : $5K
Spin 2: $10K
Spin 3: $20K
Spin 4: $40k
Spin 5: $80K
Spin 6: $160k
In this scenario, I’d have a ~47% chance of winning $5k, and just a 2% chance of losing $160k?
EDIT: Although just working this out, I think I would probably put the 160k into a 4% savings account if I had it, or start off way smaller amounts e.g. $500 to reduce my chane of losing money significantly lol.
In: 8
the casino like has a limit on how big a single bet can be, if you hit the limit you are screwed
the casino like has a limit on how big a single bet can be, if you hit the limit you are screwed
What you’re talking about is a version of something called the Martingale System. The easiest way to see a problem is to look at the exponential growth of those numbers you posted. An enormous loss is easy to accrue and you’re a person with a finite bankroll to keep doubling your bets. Another practical problem is casinos will have table limits. They aren’t going to let you double your bet forever.
Without table limits or bankroll constraints, you could potentially make money. But then, if you had infinite money why would you be wasting time on roulette?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)
What you’re talking about is a version of something called the Martingale System. The easiest way to see a problem is to look at the exponential growth of those numbers you posted. An enormous loss is easy to accrue and you’re a person with a finite bankroll to keep doubling your bets. Another practical problem is casinos will have table limits. They aren’t going to let you double your bet forever.
Without table limits or bankroll constraints, you could potentially make money. But then, if you had infinite money why would you be wasting time on roulette?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)
> In this scenario, I’d have a ~47% chance of winning $5k, and just a 2% chance of losing $160k?
In other words, you’d have a negative expected value. Your 47% chance is +2.3k expected value, and your 2% chance is -3.2k expected value, because you lose so much more money than you’d win.
> In this scenario, I’d have a ~47% chance of winning $5k, and just a 2% chance of losing $160k?
In other words, you’d have a negative expected value. Your 47% chance is +2.3k expected value, and your 2% chance is -3.2k expected value, because you lose so much more money than you’d win.
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