Why is there such a high chance of being killed by an asteroid, if nobody has ever been killed by one?


I’ve read that some experts estimate your chance of being killed by an asteroid is 1 in 74 million, Stephen Fry even said you have more chance of being killed by an asteroid than an immigrant but Wikipedia says there are no documented events of someone being killed by an asteroid

In: Mathematics

Because although large asteroid strikes are incredibly infrequent, when they occur they can be large enough to kill millions of people or even the entire species.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

This is one of those examples of when statistics driven by ‘data’ that is based wholly on wild ass guesses results in odds that seem dire, but in actuality are simply a mathematical abberation.

The assumption that an asteroid strike on the planet would theoretically be an extinction-level event (i.e., everyone dies) makes the math wonky to say the least.

It’s the kind of thing you throw out at parties to make people think, I suppose – but other than that not very useful.