Why the chance of hitting at least one of two 20% chances equals around 36% and not 40%

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Ok so I know most of the reasoning but I just need it explained a bit better because thinking about it is hurtng my brain.

So you have 2 chances of 20% rolls to hit your goal at least once, 2 D5 dice, win condition need one of them to land on 5 would be an example, the chances of either one hitting isn’t 40%, it’s actually more like 36%. I THINK this is because you are hitting 2 out of 2 in some realities so that’s wasted potential, therefore your odds of hitting at least one are lower than 40%… But I really don’t get that last bit at all.

In: Mathematics

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Anonymous 0 Comments

Consider the extreme case where you have 5 D5 dice. If you add 20% 5 times, you would get 100%. Obviously, it is not guaranteed that rolling 5 D5 dice will always result in a 5 being rolled, so the chance must be less than 100%. Therefore you can’t simply add the probabilities.

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