Ok so I know most of the reasoning but I just need it explained a bit better because thinking about it is hurtng my brain.
So you have 2 chances of 20% rolls to hit your goal at least once, 2 D5 dice, win condition need one of them to land on 5 would be an example, the chances of either one hitting isn’t 40%, it’s actually more like 36%. I THINK this is because you are hitting 2 out of 2 in some realities so that’s wasted potential, therefore your odds of hitting at least one are lower than 40%… But I really don’t get that last bit at all.
In: Mathematics
The important part is the “at least one of two”. 20% of the time when you get one hit, you also get another hit, because the two are independent of each other. But that second hit doesn’t count, so to speak, because you already have one hit, which is all you need.
So there’s a 20% chance of a hit on the first, and then a 20% chance on the second, but also a 20% chance *of that chance* that you already have a hit. So it’s 20% plus (20% times 80%), for a total of 36%.
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