Ok so I know most of the reasoning but I just need it explained a bit better because thinking about it is hurtng my brain.
So you have 2 chances of 20% rolls to hit your goal at least once, 2 D5 dice, win condition need one of them to land on 5 would be an example, the chances of either one hitting isn’t 40%, it’s actually more like 36%. I THINK this is because you are hitting 2 out of 2 in some realities so that’s wasted potential, therefore your odds of hitting at least one are lower than 40%… But I really don’t get that last bit at all.
In: Mathematics
Plenty of correct answers above, but if you extend this out you can also see a practical example of why just adding the 20% together doesn’t work. If it did think of what would happen of you had 5 tries. 20%+20%+20+20%+20% =100% so if that system worked it would mean after 5 attempts you would be garunteed a success. In your example of rolling a D5 you can see how this doesn’t neccesarly work, assuming rolling a 5 is the success and 1-4 failure you can probably we see how even rolling 5 times would not automatically give you a successful roll. It further would get complicated if you had 6 possible attempts to roll that as 20% times 6 would mean a 120% chance of success, which is of course impossible.
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