Ok so I know most of the reasoning but I just need it explained a bit better because thinking about it is hurtng my brain.
So you have 2 chances of 20% rolls to hit your goal at least once, 2 D5 dice, win condition need one of them to land on 5 would be an example, the chances of either one hitting isn’t 40%, it’s actually more like 36%. I THINK this is because you are hitting 2 out of 2 in some realities so that’s wasted potential, therefore your odds of hitting at least one are lower than 40%… But I really don’t get that last bit at all.
In: Mathematics
You have a 4/5 chance to miss, and then a 4/5 chance to miss again because one roll doesn’t inform the other. You can fail the same way again so your odds don’t jut add together – otherwise you could guarantee a heads in two coin flips.
This means 4/5 x 4/5, which is 16/25 – a 64% chance of failure.
It would be 4/5 x 3/4 (60% failure chance) only if roll one removed that possibility from roll two so you can’t have the same roll again.
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