Ok so I know most of the reasoning but I just need it explained a bit better because thinking about it is hurtng my brain.
So you have 2 chances of 20% rolls to hit your goal at least once, 2 D5 dice, win condition need one of them to land on 5 would be an example, the chances of either one hitting isn’t 40%, it’s actually more like 36%. I THINK this is because you are hitting 2 out of 2 in some realities so that’s wasted potential, therefore your odds of hitting at least one are lower than 40%… But I really don’t get that last bit at all.
In: Mathematics
Another way to look at it is that the chance of hitting at least one of two is 100% minus the chance of not hitting either. The chance of that is 80% (chance of NOT hitting A) times 80% (chance of NOT hitting B), or 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.64, or 64%. (You multiply because you need both events to happen — not hit A AND not hit B). So the chance of not hitting either is 64%, which means the opposite — the chance of hitting one OR the other OR both — is 100% – 64%, or 36%.
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