Ok so I know most of the reasoning but I just need it explained a bit better because thinking about it is hurtng my brain.
So you have 2 chances of 20% rolls to hit your goal at least once, 2 D5 dice, win condition need one of them to land on 5 would be an example, the chances of either one hitting isn’t 40%, it’s actually more like 36%. I THINK this is because you are hitting 2 out of 2 in some realities so that’s wasted potential, therefore your odds of hitting at least one are lower than 40%… But I really don’t get that last bit at all.
In: Mathematics
There is a scenario where you hit the goal the first time (20%)
There is a scenario where you hit the goal the second time (20%)
If you just add them up, you get 40%.
The problem is the scenario where you hit *both* goals. This happens in both the first scenario *and* the second scenario. So if you add up the odds, you are double counting that specific occurrence. So you need to subtract one instance of it.
The odds of hitting both goals is 20%*20% = 4%.
And 40% – 4% = 36%
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