Eli5: Gamblers fallacy

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How is it that when you flip a coin 10 times, the likely hood that it’ll land on heads 10 times in a row is extremely small but the likely hood that it’ll land on heads is 50/50 if it already landed on heads 9 times? I get that it’s a closed system and its roughly 50/50 for every coin flip but my brain is just telling me that it should be a higher chance that it would land on tails instead of heads. How does this work?

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10 Answers

Anonymous 0 Comments

That’s why it’s a fallacy- our EXPECTATIONS do not match REALITY.

And when you include an emotional response or stress, it becomes much harder for you to stop and look at it rationally. So the problem only exists in our minds, the coin doesn’t care. The coin doesn’t remember what the result was the last nine times you flipped it.

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